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Dangerous proximity to the point of no return

Let's change the most sensitive moment to face. Cristina, surrounded by Justice and Peronism, complete the most uncertain scenario since 2003 without clear leadership Source: Archive

Since 2003, Argentina has not faced any.

Election process

It is uncertain as it opens this year. Every variable that can define a vote has unexpected dynamics. If the economy results in a dangerous level of destabilization, the Department of Justice will have no impact and the policy can not guarantee the candidate grid. Or can someone say that today?

Cristina Kirchner

Become a candidate

Roberto Rabagna

Will it represent Peronism? even

Mauricio McLean

, The only true candidate, subject to a tough fire battery that prevents anticipating how to reach the voting moon.

"It is impossible to rule and campaign when there is bad news every day." As a result of devastation, a government official has integrated the spirit of quiet expansion in Casa Rosada. Inflation figures for the week were up 3.8 percent. Unemployment rose to 9.1% and activity declined 2.6%. A few days later the poverty index will meet. The dollar is not just ignoring rate hikes and new concessions.



In this context, it is no surprise that Macri's acceptance index is no longer structurally retreating in a binding manner. According to a recent Poliarquía poll, the president 's approval has fallen from 34% to 30% and the management' s minimum record. "We lost a soft vote with us in 2017. Today we are taking care of the third and we have less awareness of the general situation and economic expectations of the country Macri's positive image is from 28% to 25% (From 47% to 42%) and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (from 34% to 30%). The government's confidence index, measured by Di Tella University, 11 points down, they are just numbers that represent bad moments.

Let's change.


The real problem is that when the ruling party is not returning, the ruling party is approaching dangerously, with trends turning to irreversible and inefficient indicators. "If McGee has an ace to pickpocket," this week he put Margarita Barrientos, a popular wisdom, on the same line as Dante's "to do" line.

The controversy of pro-government strategists is that in 2015 and 2017 they also retreated back at this time. But according to electoral relativity theory, the flow of time depends on the political context. Today, there is growing social anxiety about management that has not existed in the past. "I will never vote for Macri" is higher than "I will not vote for Cristina Kirchner" for the first time. The president still has the opportunity to win, and for the nonferonist, with economic considerations in mind. But you should not believe yourself any more.

Cristina Kirchner is experiencing a double situation. On the other hand, Poliarqua's same work showed that the image increased from 30% to 33%. It is more: they admit that the government will benefit Macri by 2 or 3 points in STEP today. Harvest the dry earth left by macrismo in certain social sectors. However, she is experiencing a deep emotional instability when she makes 10 testimonies of herself because of her daughter's situation (a man who knows that she is afflicted with her health) and legal weakness. The revelation of Kirchner Víctor Manzanares diplomat, who was recognized as a partner with Justice this week, has never been a pornography corruption. It was a story about hidden treasures, illegal business and tightening between Jules Verne and Mario Puzo. The fantastic story shows how much Argentina has gone bankrupt in recent years.

Patria Institute is the center of the confusion. Even Kirchnerists do not know how to decipher their boss's movements. They blatantly criticize impromptu responses to questions about the political significance of Cuba. There is no clear national strategy yet, but it is not clear why Cristina will not play. Yes, Neuquén's failure left many internal sequels, but he was armed hard to integrate power into Peronism from all possible regions (eg, yesterday in Tierra del Fuego). D & # 39; There is a lot of stimulation in the Alessio effect.

The main characters of the crack are experiencing very high wear, which does not mean that the alternatives are automatically integrated. However, when the uncertainty of this campaign accumulates, questions are asked about whether the polarization plan, such as 2015 and 2017, will be repeated. The same trick does not always work. The circle closest to the president is still dependent on the ineffectiveness of the tools of Marcos Peña and Jaime Duran Barba. Even if they are close to them, there are people who doubt. First of all, in the Vidal environment, if Cristina is a candidate, she will analyze possible scenarios of defeat without guesswork. The governor is concerned about numbers, but she is confused with the revelation she wrote.

A twenty-minute meeting he held with President Macri and Rodríguez Larreta on Thursday was already part of myth. No one knows what they said. However, few people deny that there is more tension in the trio. The president's resignation ghost against his re-election has no grounds for how McGee thought of his political structure, but no one can stop it from flying again.

Roberto Lavagna, an agile step forward despite sock sandals, has integrated his role as a preliminary "consensus" candidate this week. In just 24 hours, he met Juan Schiaretti, the director of the federal government, and Ricardo Alfonsin, the leader of the radical rebel. I met Martin Lousteau a few weeks ago. I think Margarita Stolbizer is the sum of both parties, including Miguel Lifschitz and GEN socialism. It supports the field of trade unionism and business reconciliation. He became a socially accepted candidate for those who refuse to crack. His sermons were inspired by the dialog table in 2002 and he was convinced that Argentina was in a similar situation by recreating a coalition government. It seeks to contrast the message of the productive to current accounting. "Magic solution" in Macri's language.

According to Opinaia, a consultant, he is the leader with the best image and the least resistance. But it has one particularity: it can get more votes out of Cambias than Kirkenes because the possible voters are urban middle class, especially adults. It is part of the DNA that radicalism brought to the ruling coalition. So the nest started to stir in UCR. At UCR, there is a greater likelihood that a contest was created and even declared freedom of action in the district. This means the government came out this week to blame Lavagna.

However, the poll did not mention the collapse of the political phenomenon. Despite the strong set-up since the summer, Lavagna scored more than 2 points more than Sergio Massa and Juan Manuel Urtubey. So this week, Schiaretti has ratified that he can not be a space candidate without going through STEP. It also does not penetrate popular areas.

The discussion of whether or not intrinsic to alternative perennialism actually obscures deep debates. Lavagna does not want to run for federal PJ candidates, but it depends on the national anchor of the market and the governor who can grow at the same time. . "PASO is part of the construction and will not provide the infertility-free peronism," they said near Urtubey.

But the most delicate problem with Lavagna is Massa. They knew that the rival, who was part of the same team ("We are close to Tigrense." They have affection and respect, but the former Minister understands that the Cabinet's predecessor must run, and the former minister of the Cabinet, (In fact, Mara has gone up in the Polakai survey and Lavaghi is last month.) Today, we are going to add the intention of voting to impose conditions on the bargaining table by the end of May.

There is a ring in the air that can access the power of the country that made uncertainty a natural state. It resembles too many traps.

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