A surprising study released on Tuesday says that as the permafrost of the Arctic melts, about $ 70 trillion could be added to global climate change costs unless immediate action is taken to reduce carbon emissions.
"We have technology and policy measures to limit global warming, but we are not moving fast enough."
-Dmitry Yumashev, Lancaster University
According to a new study, published in the journal Natural communicationAccelerating Arctic warming and melting permafrost would add $ 70 trillion to the overall economic impact of climate change if the planet warmed by 3 ° C by 2100.
Even if measures are taken to limit warming to 1.5 ° C by the end of the century, the melting of permafrost is likely to add $ 24.8 trillion to the total climate cost, research shows.
Dmitry Yumashev of Lancaster University, the lead author of the study, Geographic country The melting of permafrost and sea ice is two known tip elements of the climate system that can trigger the circulation of the Earth's atmosphere.
In an interview guardianYumashev said his findings were "discouraging," but the countries of the world said they had the technical ability to face the crisis.
He said what is necessary and urgent political will.
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"Even at 1.5 ° C to 2 ° C [warming]There are impacts and costs associated with permafrost thawing. However, Yumashev said, "We have technology and policy measures to limit global warming, but we do not move fast enough."
Co-author of this study, Kevin Schaefer of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, repeated Yumashev's warning.
"Because of climate change, we are doing high-risk experiments that do not know what to expect," Schaefer said. Geographic country. "The most important thing to remember about our research is that the more warming, the stronger the feedback and the higher the social cost."
together Geographic country "The cost of the $ 25-70 trillion of warming from the Arctic adds 4 to 6 percent to the total cost of climate change and is expected to reach $ 1,390 trillion in 2300 if emissions reductions are not as good as the Paris Convention. The cost of a typical route can exceed $ 200 billion. "
Yumashev found that the expected economic impact of melting permafrost was lower than the worst-case scenario predicted by previous estimates.
But as Yumashev said guardian"There are still time bombs."