Posted in December 25, 2018 |
December 25, 2018 to Josephontes
Some people ask, "Is Tesla Model 3 the best-selling EV?"
My answer is: Yes, 2018 is a bestselling EV, with more than 100,000 units sold.
Okay, but how about a part-time seller? Which one The most common EV worldwide? Nissan leaves? And who will do it in two years time? Model 3?
I had to check the number at that time.
Since 5 million plug-ins have already been sold by October last year, the best-selling model is gaining popularity in the automotive industry. Tesla Model 3 (~ 103,000 units) and BAIC EC-series (~ 150,000 units) are now angry, but California is actually 16 months and Chinese models are still a whole new nameplate. Much older 23 months.
Thus, the top three are in the hands of the older model and the youngest is the # 3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. The model took several months to celebrate six months.
At the forefront we have Nissan leaves, and nearly 376,000 units have been sold, despite all the bad presses doing it in an effective way. The version of the original frog eye shape has reached 300,000.
Is not it bad?
The # 2 Tesla Model S has sold 254,000 units so far, and it will take some time before the Brother Model 3 is released.
Certainly worth Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (179,000 units) is a relatively new product that takes third place in Japanese SUVs recently surpassing the Chevrolet Volt.
In the plug-in scene, the days of the extended trunk door opening are over. It was the best-selling plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) in 2012 and ranked second in 2011 and 2013.
So, the answer to the current question comes up. In the coming two years, things get trickier …
Although the picture of early 2021 can predict what an existing car manufacturer will look like, the manufacturer's tsunami can not be predicted, so we can see what will happen in two years.
As for Tesla, the situation is more uncertain. Every week (not every day) something new is going on. Sometimes the fate of Tesla seems to be written by some Mexican writers, and there are too many twists and turns.
But let's do a futurology exercise.
In order to be on the podium at the beginning of 2021, it is necessary to sell more than 10,000 units a month. Until then, many models will be sold above their limit, but most will be fresh nameplates that do not have enough backlogs to pull in the 500,000 units that must be on the podium.
If you look at the current podium, you can exclude the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV already. Until then, there was no longer a demand, but Mitsubishi's production limitations (battery constraints) would not have resulted in more than 10,000 units sold, so no more than 300,000 units should be produced.
Regarding the Model S, there are too many factors (China, production constraints, new specs, etc.) because we are talking about Tesla, although the total number should be around 380,000 at the beginning of 2021 because of the high price and internal competition of the Model 3 sibling. Provides information about. But if we talk about that model later …
Then we have Nissan leaves. There is no doubt that when the 60kWh version is already released with the 40kWh version exceeding the 10,000 Indian / month standard, and the Japanese trunk has arrived, the 10,000 / unit / month performance will be normal.
So we can see that the leaves beat about 650,000 to 700,000 by January 1, 2021.
The current game changer BAIC EC-series and Tesla Model 3 are the only two nameplates that offer 5-digit / month performance without sweat.
China EV is expected to produce 180,000 units this year, but BAIC city cars will face some upsurge in the future as competition from BYD Yuan, which is intensely competitive, will steal some sales in the long run. It expects that nameplate sales will stabilize at around 130,000 units a year and about 440,000 units after 2020.
Now we have two rifles and an EC series with three batons until early 2021.
What about elephants and leitmotif in this article?
There were so many factors that could change the fate and success of Model 3, so we had to create two scenarios: Bull and Bear.
Bull scenarios will undoubtedly cheer Tesla fans. Due to the production rate of 7,000 times per day in December, 30,000 deliveries are expected. This means that Model 3 will end in 2018 and 150,000 units will be sold. Street.
With a base year of 7,000 / week as of 2019 and gradually increasing year-over-year, production will start at Gigafactory 3 in China, resulting in production of about 400,000 units. It assumes demand continues higher than supply. It is mainly thanks to the standard range arrival of Q2 and the success of European cars. China benefits from low / nonexistent import tariffs on motor vehicles.
This allows Model 3 to outperform Nissan Leaf as the world's most popular EV by the fourth quarter of 2019.
By 2020, Model 3 will be sold for about 600,000 units based on previous year's performance. Assuming demand has remained solid thanks to word of mouth and the success of the Model 3 Standard Range in Europe and China, this model can reach 1 million units on the road by the end of the year.
Because Tesla did not achieve a production rate of 7,000 / week at a consistent level, Model 3, the TSLA panty's favorite model for Bear scenarios, will end 145,000 in 2018.
In 2019, Tesla's demand problem began to appear in North America in this scenario, and the Standard Range version is only available in Q3. Europe and China are not enough to compensate especially for trailing demand in China, where US / China tariff wars seriously damage Model 3 demand. On the other hand, Gigafactory 3 suffered from delays, and mass production is expected only in 2020.
With the more attractive and advanced model released in 2019, the Model 3 is already experiencing internal competition and many potential customers are waiting for the upcoming SUV.
All of these difficulties have reduced the production of Model 3 by 190,000 units a year, and 335,000 scheduled deliveries under the Nissan Leaf in the first half of the year,
With the launch of mass production in China's Gigafactory 3 in 2020 and the delivery of a standard range in Europe, Model 3 achieved 300,000 registrations, but the success of Model Y guarantees the long-term success of the nameplate. I have been searching for the production space of my former brother.
So, by January 1, 2021, about 635,000 models 3 will be created in this scenario, which will not be enough to eliminate the aging Nissan Leaf, which Japanese cars have improved much in 2021. Do not expect Leaf to leave the throne soon.