Wednesday , June 7 2023

Tucked sideways with a slight downward bias


Dollar exchange rate

Image © Adobe Stock

– Still in the range of 1.2650 to 1.3300.

– Downward revision of 4-hour chart target 1.26s

– Brexit dominates the GBP and PMI dominates the major release of USD.

The pound-dollar exchange rate is currently trading at a sideways range of between 1.2650 and 1.3300. Though at a rate of close to 1.2828 at the 1.3000 level last week, it dropped quite steeply, but as long as it remains in range, concerns about Brexit are likely to replace the new familiar level.

If the pair can successfully escape to the extent that they can have confidence with expectation of success.

For example, a move above the range maximum identified by a movement above 1.3350 would not reach the target value of 1.3660. In the case of downside bobs confirmed by movement down 1.2600, we are expected to follow the 1.2310 target.

GBP ~ USD weekly graph "width =" 600

After the Prime Minister announced a deal with the European Union (EU), Sterling fell as concerns about "no deal" Brexit increased. The negotiations will be held at a summit with the European Union (EU), ahead of the summit with the European Union (EU)

Conservative legislators are now moving toward May, and we can see the threshold reached in the next few days, which can spark confidence in the prime minister. Therefore, Pound is likely to start a week ahead of the "back foot" and is expected to have more disadvantages as the 4 hour chart shows a short downward technological downward trend. peaks and troughs.

If we push to make a prediction, we will take a break below the November 15 low of 1.2722 and look to expect a subsequent low to the target just above the 1.2660 range bottom.

From GBP to USD 4 hour chart "width =" 600

A major concern for merchants this week is the political prospects of whether Teresa V is able to hold on to power and second, whether the new backstop deal is an opportunity for Congress approval.

If your rebels can successfully complete the challenge, it will likely be a potentially unsafe form of voting next week, and success will lead to leadership challenges. This series of events will weaken the GBP / USD almost as a result of increased political uncertainty.

Ultimately our basic case will avoid UK hard landing and the pound will recover to the pre – Brexit level in the 1.45 – 1.50 zone.

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US Dollar: Things to see

Cautious remarks and short – term interest rates warned that a slowdown in the global economic growth of the Federal Reserve could have a negative impact on the United States, The rate at which the economy does not slow down or slow down), and the Fed is signaling that its speed can stop in the hiking schedule.

If the Fed is suspended, there is already an expectation that it will raise interest rates again in December, so the dollar will weaken. And if the interest rate changes again, the dollar will be disappointed.

Expectations of high interest rates or high interest rates generally boost the currency against low interest rates and vice versa. Because the latter attracts more inflows of foreign capital drawn by the promise of higher profits, while the latter serves to impede inflows.

On the hard data front, the November Flash Composite PMI will be a key 3.45GMT release on Friday to provide an initial indication of Q4 growth.

The researchers found that on average the first two months of one quarter could be used to show overall quarterly growth with a relatively high probability of success.

Composite PMI in November is expected to rise from 54.9 to 56.0, which means that Q4 GDP growth can increase.

Another major release for the dollar is Existing Home Sales in October at 16.00 on Wednesday 21 November on Wednesday. Metric is expected to bounce back from 5.2m to 5.15m in the previous month.

Existing home sales fell monthly, peaking in March and losing every month. If we rebound in October, we will show a six-month uninterrupted break, and it will be positive for the dollar after the residential quarter. "

Another major release of the dollar ahead of that week is October's durable goods orders, which are expected to fluctuate -2.5% from last year's 0.8% to -2.5%.

However, durables are volatile and massive orders, especially in transportation and aviation, can distort and volatilize monthly data.

This seems to have happened when durable goods orders increased 0.7% in September driven by a 118.7% YoY increase in defense air travel demand.

Pound: Places to see

All eyes will be Mother Teresa and whether she can take power.

Importantly, there is confirmation that the United Kingdom can receive further concessions from E.U. – This is necessary to allow DUP and Conservative opponents to come back.

in Sky News In a May interview, the key to the outlook is that her negotiator will be the next seven days to return to E.U. It is ruining the "future relationship" with officials.

She will also be visiting Brussels, she added. As part of this week's meeting, Jean-Claude Juncker, executive chair.

In May, no more concessions and E.U. You can clearly see that the plan provided by the broker requires help. This news is pound-positive development.

A conservative rebel group calling for the May expulsion needs enough votes (48 votes) to force a vote of confidence in the prime minister this week. This would be a pound-negative development.

If May loses the ticket, she survives. She is immune to other challenges for a year.

"To take off a PM, the majority are needed and it is not clear.
MUFG's Loew said it would reach this number. "If PM was surprisingly defeated in the leadership challenge in May, we expect the pound to fall by 3 to 5 percent." No Deal "concerns will grow."

Winning the vote is positive, as the "brexiteer" suggests that space for maneuver by the opponent is fast.

On Friday, November 16, there was expectation that May would be sent to a trust vote, but the threshold was not yet filled, suggesting that the rebellion might actually stall. To write a confident vote at the time of writing, the letter looks too few.

If it stalls, we regard it as a potential trigger for the potential, partial, and recovery of the currency.

The main event ahead of the pound is probably the UK Inflation Report Hearing held by members of the House Treasury Special Committee, a parliamentary body responsible for public finance oversight.

At this hearing, the opinion of the Bank of England can affect the Pound, especially with regard to the economic trajectory and the impact of Brexit.

Recent economic indicators, including CPI and retail sales, were lower than expected, but growth figures indicate a slowdown in year-end performance.

The hearing is on Monday at 11:00 AM (GMT).

Other major releases CBI Industry trends will be conducted at 00:00 on Monday, November 19. While it is not possible to move the market independently, the CBI survey is generally a leading indicator of future economic activity and thus contributes to formulating the overall economic context of accessing the Pound.

The public sector net debt is 10.30 on Wednesday. Borrowing came to 32.6 billion in October. Government borrowing has declined in recent years.

Bank beats GBP / USD exchange rate: You can get up to 5% more foreign currency by avoiding the spreads that banks impose when providing a currency closer to the actual market price through a professional provider. Learn more Wolf

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